CPI data from Australia for the December quarter is due on Wednesday 25 January 2021 at 0030 GMT.
expected 07%, prior 0.7%
expected 0. q/q, prior 0.4%
expected 1.1% y/y, prior 1.2%
expected 0.4% q/q, prior 0.3%
expected 1.2% y/y, prior was
A couple of snippets from bank previews f what to expect follow.
- we expect Australia’s headline inflation to rise 0.9% and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) preferred trimmed mean measure to rise by a more muted 0.4%.
- We anticipate the normalisation of child-care costs and a strong lift in tobacco prices (due to the excise tax) to drive the solid bounce in Q4 headline inflation.
- Our central forecast is for low inflation to continue in 2021. However, a strong consumer-led recovery poses the risk of higher ‘demand-pull’ inflation.
- forecasting a 0.7% lift in the Q4 CPI which will hold the annual rate steady at 0.7%yr. The trimmed mean is forecast to rise 0.3%qtr which will see the annual rate ease back from 1.2%yr to 1.1%yr which would be a new record low.
Note, the first Reserve Bank of Australia meeting of 2021 follows on Tuesday February 2. The CPI data will go into policy considerations but the RBA is on hold for now.